An enthusiastic Republican base and lingering concerns about the state of the economy put the GOP in a strong position with about a week to go in the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
The new survey released Wednesday shows that Democrats’ enthusiasm for the vote is significantly lower than it was in 2018, when the Democratic Party took control of the House. Republican voters in the new poll express more commitment to this year’s midterm elections than Democrats on several questions that measure likelihood to vote.
Overall, 27% of registered voters say they are extremely excited about voting this year, down from 37% just before the 2018 midterm elections, and the decline in enthusiasm comes almost entirely among Democrats. Four years ago, 44% of registered Democratic voters said they were extremely excited about voting. Now, just 24% say the same. Among Republicans, the number has fallen only marginally, from 43% to 38%.
Although overall enthusiasm for voting is now lower than in October 2010, the Republican enthusiasm advantage now is similar to the partisan gap found then in the CNN poll, in the face of a very strong GOP midterm showing. Then as now, Republican voters were 14 points more likely to say they were extremely enthusiastic about voting in the midterms (31% of Republican voters were extremely enthusiastic versus 17% of Democratic voters).
In the new poll, Republicans lead Democrats on a general question asking voters which party’s candidate they would support in their own House district 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, just outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. Among registered voters, the race is roughly even, with 47% behind Republicans and 46% behind Democrats. Closely divided generic ballot numbers have often translated into gains for Republicans in the House.
Republicans’ position in the House race this year is bolstered by broad concerns about the state of the nation’s economy. The economy and inflation are far and away the top issue for likely voters in this final stretch, with about half of likely voters (51%) saying they will be the main issue that will determine their vote for Congress this year . Abortion, the second-place issue, lands as the top concern for 15% of likely voters. Other issues examined were selected by less than 10% of likely voters each, including voting rights and election integrity (9%), gun policy (7%), immigration (6%), climate change (4%) and crime (3%).
Republicans and independent likely voters are broadly focused on the economy, with 71% of Republicans and 53% of independents calling it the top issue on their ballot. Likely Democratic voters are more divided, with the economy and abortion the top issue in nearly equal shares – 29% say abortion, 27% the economy and inflation.
Those likely voters who say the economy is their top concern break strongly in favor of Republicans in their House districts, 71 percent to 26 percent. By an even larger margin, they say they trust the GOP more specifically to handle the economy and inflation (71% Republicans vs. 18% Democrats).
The poll finds a widespread and widespread perception that the economy is already in a recession, with broad majorities also saying things in the country are not going well in general.
Overall, 75% of Americans say the economy is in a recession, up from 64% who felt that way this summer. Majorities across party lines see the economy already in recession, including 91% of Republicans, 74% of independents and 61% of Democrats. The majority overall (55%) say they are dissatisfied with their personal financial situation, up from 47% who felt this way this spring. Most Republicans (57%) and independents (62%) express dissatisfaction with their finances, while Democrats are more likely to be satisfied (55% satisfied, 45% dissatisfied).
Nearly three-quarters of Americans (74%, including 72% of likely voters) say things are going badly in the country today. That’s a slight improvement from this summer, when 79% of all adults rated things poorly, but it’s similar to how Americans felt about the state of the country just before the 2010 midterms (75% said things were going badly) and significantly worse than just before Election Day 2018 (44% said things were going badly in early November). The last time a majority of Americans said things were going well in the US was January 2020, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Amid this growing economic malaise and stagnant negativity about the nation, President Joe Biden’s approval rating has also dipped in the new poll. Overall, 41% of adults say they approve of the president’s performance, up from 44% in the most recent CNN poll, though still ahead of his low point this summer. Among likely voters, Biden’s approval rating stands at 42%, roughly on par with Donald Trump among likely voters in 2018 (41% approved) and Barack Obama in 2010 (43% approved).
The new CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from Oct. 26-31 among a random national sample of 1,508 adults using a sample drawn from a probability panel, including 1,290 registered voters and 992 likely voters. Surveys were conducted either online or by phone with a live interview. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. it is 3.4 points among registered voters and 3.8 among likely voters. Potential voters were identified through a series of questions about their intention, interest and voting history.
